The operation of machinery industry and economic o

In the first half of 2019, the operation of the machinery industry was generally stable, the economic operation was generally stable, and the industry development was advancing steadily. China United Business Daily Bi Shujuan intern Zhang Xiaotong reported from Beijing. On August 8, the China Machinery Industry Federation held an information dissemination meeting on the economic operation situation of the machinery industry in the first half of 2019 in Beijing. Chen Bin, executive vice president of the China Machinery Industry Federation, pointed out after a brief analysis of the industry operation profile in the first half of the year that the industry development was advancing steadily, But problems and pressures remain. Comprehensive analysis: Although the economic operation difficulties and pressures of the whole machinery industry in 2019 are great, positive factors still exist. It is preliminarily estimated that the overall economic operation of the whole year will be relatively stable, the industrial added value will strive to reach about 6%, and the operating revenue, total profits and import and export trade will maintain moderate growth

since this year, under the increasingly complex domestic and international development environment, the machinery industry has been under pressure. At the beginning of the year, production and sales continued the downward trend of the previous year, rebounded to a certain extent in March, and fluctuated after April. Product output differentiated, the decline of benefit indicators narrowed, investment growth slowed down and stabilized, and the price index hovered at a low level. Except for the relatively large fluctuations in some industries, the economic operation of the machinery industry in the first half of the year was generally stable, and the main economic indicators remained within a reasonable range

looking forward to the second half of the year, with the implementation of policies and measures such as promoting the deep excavation of domestic market potential, expanding and expanding final consumption, stabilizing manufacturing investment, improving industrial basic capacity and industrial chain level, as well as the implementation of tax reduction and fee reduction policies, the economic operating environment of the machinery industry will be improved and the vitality of enterprise development will be further released. However, it should be noted that the deep-seated problems that perplex the development of the industry, such as the contradiction between supply and demand and structural contradictions, have not been significantly improved, and the pressure to achieve smooth operation throughout the year remains

I. overview of industry operation in the first half of the year

(I) low growth of added value

since this year, the growth rate of added value in the machinery industry has fluctuated greatly, rising from 2% in the beginning of the year and month to 6.3% in the first quarter, and then falling back to 4.2% in the first half of the year. It is not only 4.2 percentage points lower than the same period last year, but also lower than the national average level of industry and manufacturing in the same period. Among the five major categories of national economic industries involved in the machinery industry, the added value of general equipment manufacturing, special equipment manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, and instrument and meter manufacturing increased by 5.1%, 8.3%, 10% and 9.6% year-on-year respectively, higher than the average level of the machinery industry; The added value of the automobile manufacturing industry fell by 1.4% year-on-year, lower than the average level of the machinery industry

(II) the production of products varies

since this year, the production of major products in the machinery industry has continued to weaken. Among the 120 major products monitored by the machinery industry in the month, only 48 products with year-on-year growth in output accounted for 40%; There were 72 products with year-on-year decline, accounting for 60%. From the perspective of trend, the number of mechanical products whose output has increased since the first half of the year has continued to decrease, accounting for 40% of the year, down from 44% at the beginning of the year; And the output has increased, and the growth rate of products has also shown a downward trend

the increase and decrease in the output of main products are characterized by the following: first, the production of hoisting equipment, petrochemical equipment and general equipment has maintained a rapid growth. In the first half of the year, the output growth rate of cranes, special equipment for oil refining and chemical production, and oil drilling equipment exceeded 20%; The output growth rate of general equipment such as blowers, gas compressors, compressors and valves for refrigeration equipment is about 10%. Second, after the rapid growth of construction machinery, environmental protection machinery, instrumentation products, the growth rate generally fell back, and there was differentiation. In the first half of the year, the output of excavators continued to increase by nearly 20%, but the output of loaders, compaction machinery and concrete machinery has increased negatively; Among the environmental pollution prevention and control equipment, the output of air pollution prevention and control equipment increased by more than 90%, but the growth rate of water pollution prevention and control equipment and solid waste treatment equipment was only about 2%, and the output of noise and vibration control equipment increased negatively; Among instruments and meters, electrical and environmental monitoring special instruments and meters have increased significantly, but the output of industrial automation control systems, testing machines and other products has decreased by more than 10%. Third, the production of power generation equipment, power transmission and transformation equipment, and machine tool products is generally depressed. In the first half of the year, the output of power generation equipment (including water turbine generator units, steam turbine generator units), utility boilers, utility turbines, as well as large power transformers, transformers, power capacitors, high-voltage switches and other power transmission and transformation equipment decreased. The output of machine tool products continued to grow in an all-round negative way, and the output of seven major products decreased. Fourth, the decline in automobile production and sales exceeded expectations. In the first half of the year, the production and sales of automobiles were 12.132 million and 12.323 million respectively, a decrease of 13.7% and 12.4% over the same period of the previous year, far exceeding the expectations at the beginning of the year. Fifth, agricultural machinery products showed signs of bottoming out and rising, with half of the 10 major products counted

(III) economic benefits declined

in the first half of the year, the machinery industry achieved an operating income of 10.53 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.29% year-on-year; The total profit was 619.537 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.58%. The growth rate of the two indicators fell sharply compared with the previous year, and the growth rate of total profits turned from positive to negative, with negative growth for the first time in more than a decade. Compared with the national industry, the growth rate of operating income and total profit of the machinery industry were 3.42 and 6.19 percentage points lower than the national industrial average level in the same period, respectively

(IV) fixed asset investment tends to stabilize slowly

at the beginning of 2019, the growth rate of fixed asset investment in the machinery industry continued the growth trend of the previous two years, but after entering March, the investment growth rate fell, and stabilized in June. In the first half of the year, among the five major categories of national economic industries mainly involved in the machinery industry, the fixed asset investment in general equipment, special equipment, instruments and meters and automobile manufacturing industries increased by 2.8%, 7.2%, 14.2% and 0.2% respectively, and the investment in material manufacturing industry decreased by 8.1% on a year-on-year basis after the test pieces were added to electrical machinery and machinery. Compared with the national industrial investment growth rate, only the investment growth rate of special equipment and instrumentation industry is higher than the industrial average level

according to the data of the national investment project approval and supervision platform, the investment amount of investment projects approved nationwide in the first half of this year totaled 67.15 trillion yuan, an increase of 29.9% year-on-year; Among them, the investment in machinery industry related investment projects totaled 3.12 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 20.9%, lower than the average growth rate. Recently, our association has carried out a special questionnaire survey on some key contact enterprises. The results show that the current factors restricting industry investment are: first, insufficient funds, and it is difficult to complete the investment only by relying on the enterprise's own funds; Second, the problem of difficult and expensive financing still exists; Third, insufficient investment willingness and unclear direction

(V) the decline in imports is stabilizing and exports are generally stable.

under the current situation of slowing growth momentum of international economy and trade, complex and severe external environment, and intensifying unilateralism and trade protectionism, the import and export of machinery industry has declined. In the first half of the year, the machinery industry achieved a total import and export volume of US $370.77 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.57%. At the same time, its shrinkage and molding properties were equivalent to those of the original standard materials, with imports of US $149.651 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 8.6%; Exports reached US $221.119 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.17%; The trade surplus reached US $71.469 billion. In terms of growth rate, in the first half of the year, the decline of foreign trade import of the machinery industry stabilized, and the export was generally stable; However, compared with the previous year, the growth rate of import and export, import and export of the machinery industry fell significantly by 17.93, 23.35 and 13.9 percentage points

in the first half of the year, the machinery industry imported US $15.374 billion from the United States, a year-on-year decrease of 16.47%; Exports to the United States amounted to 35.376 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 11.55%; The decline of imports and exports is greater than the average level of imports and exports of the machinery industry

II. Steady progress in industry development

(I) strategic emerging industries drive industry development

in the first half of the year, industries related to strategic emerging industries in the machinery industry (a total of 117 sub categories of national economic industries) achieved an operating income of 7.73 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.48% year-on-year, 2.19 percentage points higher than the overall machinery industry, accounting for 73.4% of the operating income of the machinery industry, an increase of 1.56 percentage points over the same period last year. Excluding the automobile industry, the strategic emerging industries of the machinery industry achieved an operating income of 5.77 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 6.28% year-on-year; The total profit was 322.204 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.14%. Strategic emerging industries have played an enhanced role in driving the steady development of the machinery industry

(II) the development of sub industries is generally good

since this year, the main economic indicators of the machinery industry have been running at a low level, which has been greatly affected by the decline of the automotive industry. Excluding the automobile industry, the 13 sub industries of the machinery industry achieved a cumulative operating income of 6.55 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 6.06% year-on-year; The total profit was 366.676 billion yuan, an increase of 6.96% year-on-year; Both are higher than the growth rate of machinery industry and national industrial related indicators. Among them, the growth rate of operating income of engineering machinery, heavy mining machinery, food packaging machinery, robot and intelligent manufacturing industries all exceeded 10%, indicating that the sub industry of machinery industry is generally in good operation

(III) the transformation of new and old kinetic energy continues to advance

under the joint action of policy guidance, market forces and other factors, the transformation of new and old kinetic energy in the industry continues to advance. As the primary sub industry of the machinery industry, the operation of the automobile industry has continued to weaken since last year, and the decline in automobile production and sales in the first half of this year has deepened. However, the production and sales of new energy vehicles maintained a high-speed growth, with a cumulative sales of 614000 and 617000 vehicles in the first half of the year, an increase of 48.5% and 49.6% respectively year-on-year; Operating income increased by 17% year-on-year. The power generation equipment manufacturing industry has been in an adjustment period in the past two years, and its output and efficiency have shown a significant decline. However, the output of wind power equipment maintained a growth rate of 18.45% in the first half of the year, and the growth rate of the industry's operating revenue and total profit exceeded 50%. In addition, machinery enterprises actively expand and extend the service field. For example, through the development of service-oriented manufacturing business, Shaangu group increased its operating revenue by 59.2% year-on-year and its total profit by 73% in the first half of the year

(IV) actively respond to changes in the foreign trade environment

recently, Sino US trade frictions have continued to affect the development of foreign trade. Machinery industry enterprises actively respond to changes in the foreign trade environment, strengthen and deepen cooperation with traditional trading partners through various channels, and actively expand new trading partners and seek new development. In the first half of the year, the export of private enterprises in the machinery industry increased by 7.33%; The number of excavators exported by XCMG to North America has doubled; TBEA group undertook the construction of Kyrgyzstan's "datka Keming" power transmission and transformation project and Tajikistan Dushanbe thermal power plant project along the "the Belt and Road"; Yuchai group's engine has successfully equipped a new ship in South Korea, opening the door to the South Korean market

(V) a number of major technological innovation achievements have been put into use

major technological equipment is a basic and strategic product related to national security and the lifeline of the national economy, and an important symbol of the country's comprehensive strength and core competitiveness. In recent years, the machinery industry has made breakthroughs in the independent research and development of major technical equipment, and the innovative achievements are gradually put into use. In the first half of the year, the Changji Guquan ± 1100 kV high-voltage DC transmission line, which was developed and built by the State Power Corporation of China, China XD Group, TBEA and other units for six years, successfully realized full voltage power transmission, marking that China became the first country in the world to have the ability to transmit 10 million kilowatts of power within 3000 to 5000 kilometers. Xca1600, a 9-bridge 1600 ton all terrain crane developed by XCMG, successfully completed the installation of 140 meter high and nearly 90 ton wind turbines in Baixiang wind farm, Hebei Province, setting a world record for the installation height of wind power for all terrain cranes. The w12x92 marine crankshaft manufactured by Shanghai Electric Marine Crankshaft Co., Ltd. was officially rolled off the production line. The crankshaft adopts a splicing structure, with a total length of 23.5 meters and a weight of 488 tons. It is currently the world's heaviest marine crankshaft