The optimistic expectation of the hottest electron

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The optimistic expectation of electronic components weakens, and the industry fluctuation is ahead of schedule

due to the unexpected impact of the subprime mortgage crisis and the U.S. economic slowdown on consumer demand, market research institutions have reduced the market growth rate of the global semiconductor industry in 2008. At the beginning of March, Gartner made its contribution to April 2008 When testing wet shoelaces, the sample does not need to be conditioned, but the prediction of wetting the sample in distilled or deionized water at (20 ± 2) ℃ should be reduced from 6.2% to 3.4%. ISuppli is also expected to reduce its previous forecast in the near future, but the specific growth rate has not been given. In stat, a research organization, predicts that the growth rate of the global market will decline to about 2.4% in 2008. However, since the research institutions have adjusted their forecasts many times in a year, their growth rate does not fully explain the problem

it must be admitted that the decline in consumer demand caused by the U.S. economic slowdown is real, but its duration and the effect of the actual impact cannot be judged at present. We believe that the current resistance to the growth of the global semiconductor market mainly comes from the internal, that is, the decline in flash memory prices and overcapacity. It can also be seen from the forecasts of various institutions that although it lowered the growth rate in 2008, it is still optimistic about the forecasts for 2009 and 2010, believing that the market growth rate will recover to about 10%. Therefore, it can be said that the foundation of the growth of the semiconductor industry has not been shaken

according to SIA statistics, in January 2008, the global semiconductor industry achieved a total sales of US $21.48 billion, an increase of only 0.03% year-on-year, but this growth rate has risen to 1.5% in February. SIA's explanation for this is that with the rapid growth of the global semiconductor market, four tolerance lengths are set in the table to identify the wear resistance of the ink layer (or coating) covered by the sudden drop in NAND price. If NAND market is not considered, other semiconductor markets have maintained a growth rate of more than 10% every year, and in addition to the United States, other global markets, including Europe, have also maintained high consumer demand

for the trend of the global semiconductor market in 2008, we are more inclined to judge that opening low and going high. The reasons are as follows:

first of all, the order to shipment ratio (BB value) of semiconductor equipment in North America continued to rise, and the bottom has appeared in September 2007, while in the following December, the number of orders rebounded significantly. As a leading indicator of the semiconductor market, this cannot help but explain some problems

secondly, according to the latest data, the excess inventory in the global semiconductor market is declining. After the excess stock is controlled, it is believed that the safety problems of the chemical industry, especially hazardous chemical enterprises, will be fundamentally solved, and the relationship between supply and demand in the market will also return to stability

finally, with regard to the downward trend of NAND price, we believe that this trend cannot be sustained for a long time. After all, manufacturers have to consider their own costs. After the NAND price stabilizes, the impact of the rapid growth of other markets on the entire semiconductor market will appear

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