The opportunities and risks of the hottest new ene

2022-09-21
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The opportunities and risks of the new energy vehicle market need to be viewed dialectically

under the background of obtaining effective information that China has jumped to the largest number of new energy vehicles in the world, the news of checking whether there is overcapacity risk in new energy vehicles spread like wildfire, indicating that relevant departments are worried about some risks hidden in the rapid development of the whole industry. As the new energy vehicle industry is increasingly approaching the key point when the policy system is constantly improving and the thrust of industrial development is facing switching, enterprises and capital need to see both opportunities and risks in order to escort the sustained, healthy and stable development of enterprises and even the whole industry

in fact, officials have already paid attention to the risk of overcapacity faced by the new energy vehicle industry. At the beginning of this year, the relevant person in charge of the Ministry of industry and information technology made a statement that in the field of new energy passenger cars and trucks, some enterprises have shown signs of structural overcapacity, and should be wary of further aggravation of problems such as insufficient high-end capacity and excess low-end capacity of power batteries

this concern about overcapacity is in line with the particularity of the new energy vehicle industry. Relatively speaking, traditional cars can not continue to be put into the application industry until they are repaired in good condition. Due to the high threshold of many technologies such as engine and gearbox, the entry barrier is high. Through forming and back injection of stable fiber-reinforced composites called "organic sheets". However, for new energy vehicles, in addition to some core components such as batteries, the core technical barriers have been significantly reduced, and the breakeven point of new energy vehicle industry such as electric vehicles is lower than that of traditional vehicles. Under the broad market prospect and the background of large capital and shortage of assets, the whole industrial chain will inevitably attract the appetite of enterprises and capital

this attraction can be regarded as a "double-edged sword". On the one hand, the healthy development of the industry requires the establishment of a benign competition system, and the involvement of multiple enterprises and capital is an important basis to promote the spiral rise of the whole industry in the competition; But on the other hand, there will also be a mixed phenomenon. For example, China has made clear the schedule of subsidies for electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids, and the expectation of the decline in sales of relevant vehicle types will also be recognized by the industry at that time. However, some enterprises and capital are still working hard to increase investment in relevant industries before the policy decline and exit, in order to seize the tail of subsidies

in addition to the risk of structural overcapacity, many industry insiders also expressed another level of concern about it. Due to the role of the law of industrial development and the traditional habit of starting production first and then finding the technical constraints before the problem, from 2017 to 2018, it is not ruled out that some pure electric products in the early stage will have obvious problems due to technical bottlenecks such as battery life, so that enterprises that make enough eyeballs and profits in related products in the early stage will bear the burden. These risks test the long-term operation wisdom and business strategy of the enterprise

in fact, not only in the field of new energy vehicles, but also in some other industries in China, there are more or less risks of repeated construction and relatively excess low-end capacity. Therefore, no matter what kind of industry, no matter for enterprises or capital, it is not suitable to impulsively invest and blindly intervene. Instead, it should focus on the overall situation of industrial development and combine the advantages of enterprises, actively act according to their abilities, so as to avoid unnecessary waste of resources and sunk costs

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